Scientists at the University of Edinburgh are examining the history of viruses to find patterns that may help predict future pandemics. In a typical year, experts find two to three new viruses in humans, though most remain unknown and unremembered. Exceptions like HIV-1 and SARS-CoV-2, which led to global crises, show the need for tools to differentiate between harmless discoveries and potential public health threats.
Transmission and Risk Factors
Viruses that cause pandemics often have RNA-based genomes, a feature common to thousands of species. Only 239 RNA viruses infect humans, but their ability to spread between people is most important. Two-thirds of the group’s cataloged viruses are zoonotic, meaning they typically move from animals to humans, not from person to person. Rabies is one such example, but its lack of human-to-human transmission has limited its impact.
Concerns grow when zoonotic viruses change to spread among humans. Bird flu is a clear example, though no RNA virus has yet made this jump. More troubling are viruses already capable of human-to-human transmission, like measles or SARS-CoV-2. These viruses may originate in animals but gain the ability to spread widely among people, as seen in past outbreaks of measles and rubella.
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Early Detection and the Pandemic Catalog
The group’s catalog includes viruses that have caused major epidemics, such as Ebola, Chikungunya, and mpox. Some viruses on the list, like Andes hantavirus, have recently reappeared in outbreaks. Early detection is vital: both Andes hantavirus and SARS-CoV-2 were circulating for weeks before being identified. Faster identification could reduce the time viruses have to spread before interventions begin.
The catalog also helps predict what a future pandemic might resemble. In 2019, the group observed that highly transmissible viruses often look similar to others that spread between humans but come from animals. This pattern matched SARS-CoV-2, which originated in bats but differed from the original SARS coronavirus. The year before, the World Health
Viruses like Andes and Bundibugyo, although worrisome, lack the traits needed for a global pandemic. A measles-related virus, however, would pose a far greater risk. The catalog’s value lies in its ability to highlight which viruses require urgent attention—and which may be less dangerous. Early action, the group argues, could significantly change the course of future outbreaks.
